SmartYInvestor

2011-09-03T12:17:00.000+08:00

hello shatec students

To mr tham

2011-02-20T08:34:00.000+08:00

This is for you

2007-02-14T09:30:00.000+08:00

2007-02-13T14:25:00.000+08:00

Allco Reit

2007-01-23T18:55:00.000+08:00

Tilt up momentum, buildup volume & a meaty MACD envelope!

First REIT

2007-01-02T22:02:00.000+08:00

I was looking at Cambrige and First but chart wise, First looked more favourable. See the deep rising of First's price and the OBV looks good and sustaining. With the craze now on REIT, this one could be a bet as the risk and reward ratio is good. Why? Price still low comparing with the more seasoned one!

SunEast - Worth a Try

2006-10-10T07:48:00.000+08:00

What can I say: HIgh Volume, Good OBV and ADX. A so called strong stock in Bad time!

SPH - looks Promising

2006-10-06T00:11:00.000+08:00

Crescendos of HIGH Volume. RSI, OBV & ADX indicators are favourable.
Lastest News

OCBC BK - A Breakthrough

2006-10-02T22:41:00.000+08:00

Breakthrough with High Volume. A good sign to risk. Also the Ang MO CEO looks promising with new strategies ahead.

SingPost - A Buy

2006-10-02T09:26:00.000+08:00

Now at support level and the new reality contract will boost its value and down play its anxiety over the loss of Post contract.

Chartered C27

2006-09-28T08:40:00.000+08:00

Stock on tight trading range since 14 Aug: from $1.18 to $1.27. RSI and Volume are having favourable patterns. Once $1.27 is cleared, future looks bright!

MMP Reit

2006-09-18T23:24:00.000+08:00

Chart looks favourable. And with US fund likely to invest more in Singapore REIT, MMP Reit is now attractive!

See the future!

2006-09-12T14:07:00.000+08:00

From the STI, and the MACD envelopes it is now unfavourable to rush in.

SG-Technical

2006-09-08T09:51:00.000+08:00

Markets- Regional markets have corrected sharply over the past 2 days.
The
Nikkei has lost 583 points from recent high while the HSI has lost
almost
500 points over the past 4 days. Still, there is no sign of trend
reversal
on either of these bourses. Price chart on the Nikkei suggests that
the
current decline towards 15831 is part of a large wedge pattern that
still holds the potential for another advance. Similarly, the pattern
for
the HSI shows a "flat' structure which according to Elliott wave
theory is
a minor corrective structure. Specifically the pattern looks like the
terminal stage of a wave 4 move which could reverse back up from the
16950-17000 range.
In Singapore, the ST index's 30 odd decline from 2534 has not formed a
bearish 5 wave decline and as such holds scope for further advance.
significant So long as the index holds above the 38% retracement level
of
the move from 2525-2434 or 2492, there is scope for further advance. So
all
in all, we would recommend readers to hold on to some of our earlier
recommended long trades. Celestial Nutrifood for example has trendline
support near $1.60 and is still in an uptrend. SPC, likewise has
trendline
support near $4.88 and is unlikely to deteriorate further. We also
continue
to favour China HongXing at $1.62, Global testing remains attractive at
$0.26 as in UTAC at $0.75.

Japanese Stocks Decline on Stronger Yen; Canon, Takeda Fall

2006-09-08T09:27:00.000+08:00

By Makiko Suzuki

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell after the yen advanced against the euro and dollar, reducing the value of overseas sales at companies such as Canon Inc., which last year got about one third of its sales from Europe.

``The currency's gain has heightened investor concern over a stronger yen,'' said Soichiro Monji, who helps oversee 447 billion as equity strategist at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Exporter stocks will be weak today.''

Companies that rely on U.S. sales, including Sony Corp., also declined on speculation a housing slump there will curb consumer spending in Japan's biggest overseas market.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 104.89, or 0.7 percent, to 15,907.52 as of 9:11 a.m. in Tokyo. The broader Topix index lost 4.08, or 0.3 percent, to 1609.38.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. fell after saying it will scrap development of an experimental diabetes treatment.

AirCon Decription for whom it may concern

2006-08-26T08:41:00.000+08:00

Japanese Stocks May Drop on Concerns Over U.S. Growth (Correct)

2006-08-24T07:48:00.000+08:00

By Makiko Suzuki

(Corrects typographical error in second paragraph.)

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks may fall after weaker- than-expected housing data in the U.S. raised concerns over an economic slowdown in Japan's largest overseas market. Exporters such as Sony Corp. may pace losses.

``The U.S. home sales figure will have a negative impact on stocks in Japan, pushing exporter stocks lower today,'' said Nagayuki Yamagishi, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``Investors want neither a slowdown in the U.S. economy nor inflation, and waver between optimism and despair on each piece of economic data or comment from a Fed official.''

Inpex Holdings Inc. may decline after crude prices slid on an unexpected increase in U.S. inventories.

Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures expiring in September last traded in Chicago at 16,105, down from the close of 16,170 in Osaka and 16,180 in Singapore. The Bank of New York Japan ADR Index, which tracks the nation's American depositary receipts, fell 0.4 percent.

Yesterday, the Nikkei slipped 0.1 percent to 16,163.03 and the broader Topix index lost 0.1 percent to 1640.28.

Nippon Steel Corp. may advance after the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported the world's No. 3 steelmaker and Mittal Steel Co. will build a 30 billion yen ($257.7 million) automotive steel plant for their joint venture in the U.S.

To contact the reporter for this story: Makiko Suzuki in Tokyo at msuzuki13@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: August 23, 2006 19:23 EDT

Did You Know There's a World Surplus of Crude Oil?:

2006-08-16T15:54:00.000+08:00

Did You Know There's a World Surplus of Crude Oil?: David Pauly
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Maybe the markets are lying. Crude oil keeps trading at $70 a barrel or more, where it's been pretty much since mid-April. U.S. gasoline costs on average about $3 a gallon, enough to make you think about walking. Still, there's a world surplus of crude oil.

Analysts say production of the low-sulfur crude refiners prefer now exceeds global demand by about 1 million barrels a day, equal to about 1.2 percent of consumption.

While basic economics suggest oil prices should be declining, Charles Maxwell, oil analyst at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Connecticut, says the surplus has done its work by keeping crude from soaring beyond the record $78.40 it hit last month.

Since last spring, when there was no surplus, he points out that Nigerian output has been reduced by civil unrest, Venezuela and Iran have both cut production and BP Plc has found a leak in its Alaska pipeline. If that had been foreseen, ``you would have predicted $90 oil,'' says Maxwell.

Oil prices per barrel may actually decline into the $60s next spring, when supplies usually become more abundant, if U.S. economic growth continues to abate, Maxwell says.

He says there is anecdotal evidence that industry and individuals are starting to conserve energy. Another reason why crude prices might fall: ``We're running out of bad things that can happen.''

Funds Out?

Earlier this week, Ben Dell, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, said crude prices were ripe to fall considerably because of the surplus -- and because buying of oil by pension funds and hedge funds may be ending.

These funds have been able to buy crude on the spot market and sell it for future delivery at a higher price. The storage facilities needed to accommodate these trades will fill up in four to six months and they will have to end, Dell said.

Crude oil, at $73.05 a barrel yesterday in New York, would be about $50 a barrel based simply on production costs, the Bernstein analyst said. The rest is due to increased investor interest and concerns about supply disruptions for political or military reasons.

I have a hunch that the price of oil -- which was about $10 a barrel as recently as 1998 and which traded between $20 and $40 in 2002 and 2003 -- may soon drop even more than the experts think possible. Analysts, though, make a good case for relatively high prices staying with us.

Lack of Vision

The emergence of huge economies in China and India, for instance, has increased world demand for oil significantly while capacity to produce oil hasn't kept up.

It became evident in 2000 that oil consumption would increase and the major publicly held oil companies should have doubled their spending for increased production, says Maxwell, who began working in the oil industry in 1957. They didn't. ``You can lay this at their doorstep,'' he says.

Exxon Mobil Corp. has spent tens of billions of dollars buying back its shares, Maxwell says, money that would have reaped additional profit if it had been spent on production capacity.

National oil companies, which control the lion's share of world production, didn't expand capacity either, Maxwell says, because they didn't get enough money from their governments and because they turned away private investment by tough bargaining.

Maxwell predicts the price of crude will be between $55 and $75 for the next two years -- mostly in the $60s -- and people will adjust to the higher level. I'd still like to see $45 oil, but maybe this is the best we can hope for.

(David Pauly is a columnist for Bloomberg News. Opinions expressed are his.)

To contact the writer of this column:
David Pauly in Normandy Beach, New Jersey
dpauly@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 16, 2006 00:04 EDT

StatchipPac (S24) - To sell or not to sell!

2006-05-01T08:51:00.000+08:00

S24 has an "engulging bear" and CCI looks threatening. Inspite of these, the overall picture still look OK and sustainable. ADX 5days still OK and the Price has not cut across the 15DEMA yet. Furthermore analyst had upgraded it with TP as $1.68.
To me, as long as the support of $1.32 is not breached, I will hold on to it!

Characterd (C27) A Double Edge Sword?

2006-04-19T07:52:00.000+08:00

Chartered's chart was beautiful. Just cut across and upward against the 15EMA. Also confirmed by the recent gap up. All other indicators were super. A good scenerio to buy in. USA side was up last night too. But beware of the result/report soon; which is expected to be not a good figure!

SunEast - The Cream that Swells Your Wealth

2006-04-17T19:10:00.000+08:00

SunEast, today broke out decisively. OBV indicated very high buying power. The Stochastic was beautiful at the level which most retail investors would like to have a go at it: Not overbrought and tilting up. The volume was another added clue for huge interest in the stock. It is realistic to anticipate the breaking of the previous IPO high of .53 soon. After which sky is the limit.

Chartered (C27) Updated

2006-04-08T11:49:00.000+08:00

Chartered (C27) now displayed an ugly chart; such that a slight bad news would be an impetus to send it southward. We can see the candlestick pattern is forming a 3 crows pattern so frigtening in nature. ADX 5 days said that trend is going downward and the CCI 14 days confirmed overbrought situation. Although the price did not cut its 15D EMA and the OBV uptrend is still intact, these are not convincing enough to provide clues to sustain the near term upward. With bad result expected on the 21st April, I would guess that probability of $1.48 support cannot hold long is high!

UTAC (U12) as Requested

2006-03-14T01:01:00.000+08:00

UTAC (U12) is currently trading in the range of 89 to 96 cents. Thus we can safely take it as support and resistance respectively. From the Chart, we can know that U12 had luckily survived a Head and Shoulders formation (Red Crests).
Scrutinizing it yield scenario 1 and scenario 2. In (1) it would be a happy story, a so called Single Bottom Bullishness. In contrast, (2) (Green Crests), a bearish connotation of another mini Head and Shoulders.
Currently, U12 is still in downtrend and the SAR is also telling an unfavorable story. Further, ADX is –ve placed denoting downtrend is still not reversed yet. However, RSI and the William % R look good.
What ever it is, the faith of U12 lies in a Key. And that is the deciding 93 cents clearance! Above means up thrust, and below means downturn.

SPH - (T39) A Blue Chip that is no longer BLUE!

2006-03-13T08:11:00.000+08:00

SPH (T39) I like SPH a lot now. Why? Very discipline in its behaviour. Price high with up volume and down with low volume. Just look at the ADX indicator, D+ positively up and at 31.61. With the offer of 2 billion for the Paragon, translated to 67 cents per share, 100% retracement ($4.90) ought to be near at hand. Most analysts target it at $5.10!

StatsChpPac (s24) as requested

2006-03-12T16:05:00.000+08:00

StatsChipac (S24) has breached a very difficult resistance of 1.18 and headed towards 1.25 then 1.34. Currently the wide price channel band is 1.10 to 1.34 and the narrow one is 1.18 and 1.25. Look like upside is of high probabilibty!

Chartered (C27) How high can you go?

2006-03-12T11:05:00.000+08:00

Chartered (C27) has broken the tough resistance of 1.44 (60.1 % retracement of mid 2004) and going from : 1.49 => 1.68 => 1.75 (100%). Must also respect the 1.40 => 1.34 (50%). To me this would mean if it clear 1.49 we can expect a good ride to 1.75. If breakout happens to be false it will be back to 1.34.
P/s: This is just a educated theory based solely on F. Retracement theory as a guide only & certainly not a call to buy or sell.

MFS Tech (5BM) - Breaks out of Resistance, acheive new High!

2006-03-08T21:40:00.000+08:00

MFS Tech (5BM) depicts a nice chart. Breaks new high. Again, anyway you put it, it is bullish. As in Chart A, we can see the Resistance of $1.04 broken and also the breakout from the Triangle. The Guppy Chart also showed strength of good uptrend; all the way up. In line with in, the ADX 5 day confirmed an inevitable continuation of up thrust. This is evidenced in the reversed small up tick with D+ positively placed. Our fear of ADX height and its about turn is muted as from its history; (5BM) tends to reverse only at approx 62! To add confidence to this believe, RSI 5days is exhibiting a very strong upward move towards 78. Put it critically, it is overbought. CCI 5 day agreed with it at 100. But looking at it, both are upward and not curling down yet. Hence, risk is worth taking. Volume at 7 mil, same figure as the past average 10 periods. This is normal. But the note worthy point is that volume is increasing over prior period.
Let’s cross over to chart b. All the good things in life! Breakout from Price Channel and Bollinger Band. Bull seems to appear judging from a white Hammer (in concept only –because tail must doubled its body and in down trend to form a prefect Hammer). Also notice the bullish divergence formed between the price and its momentum. Prices are likely to advance and sky is the limit. If the correction ever set in, be prepared to respect the 97 and 91 cents as support. Fundamentally result was out 2 days ago and its declaring of dividend. The market is now reacting to it. I think there is a rumor of it being a take over candidate. This could be the saint propping the price now!

Tomorrow - Which way the Wind blows?

2006-03-07T23:59:00.000+08:00

Today most China Stocks were bloody so to speak! Other stocks also went down. STI was down 23.73 points & closed at 2489.15. This is the resistance point I previously predicted (2490). It does look like it is very hard to break without taking a pause. STI now look very overbought and extended. So it is better to be cautious and prudential... My sense is telling me it is safer to be in CASH rather than to be long on stock. As I’m writing now, Dow up 20 points, Nasqad down 11 points. Chartered, StatsChpac and Creative in USA also down. With today 3 digit down in Hang Seng and Nikkei and 29 points down in China, things look a bit scary. Whether which way the wind blows tomorrow, is a question which can be answered only after 5pm tomorrow. Let’s see how!

Hongguo (H14) - The Game is not Over!

2006-03-06T19:23:00.000+08:00

Let’s go to the standards. The green arrows denote bullish and the grey arrow a neutral stand.
Particularly interesting notes are the Triple Tweezers Top that sits squarely on the resistance line of $0.385. Zooming in (1) the blue patch, we can clearly see the bulls are losing its dominant position. This is also in tune with the so called bearish rejection pattern.
However, I have many clues to debate against these notions. Firstly we can see (2) the concept of the 3 white soldiers marching smartly upward. Then, (3) there is this single bottom which add strength to support the bull. The fact that the base line of the single bottom rested at $0.385 doubled its significance.
Whether this rally is sustainable remains to be seen. To me, it is very interesting because a “very good or very bad “event shall happen. Not in between. I’ve seen this type of pattern rallied to new height more than downward failure. Currently the range is $0.34 to $0.385. If $0.385 is breached, it is unden1ably bullish all the way!
P/s: Metalstock software said as below: So I take it as a CONCEPT not actual!
“Three white candles occurred in the last 3 days . Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers , the upwards pattern is bullish”.
Bottom without handle examples

OCBC (O39) as Requested

2006-03-04T23:41:00.000+08:00

OCBC (O39) chart has deteriorated. Most of the 5 day indicators said so. Namely, the ADX , RSI, CCI and the Volume indicators. In fact, CCI has registered an overbought status. Furthermore, there was a dangerously bearish convergence between the Momentum and Price. This would mean short term down trend very likely.
Although, there are clear indications of consolidation, there are many clues however, guarantee no avalanche triggering. Such are the: Price still above 10DEMA and the Guppy Chart still with its lower EMAs still erecting and widely spread. Also Candlestick wise, Doji has turned from Gravestone to Dragonfly. Personally, my sense is that the “tight range” consolidation ( Resistance $6.90 – Support $6.75)will drag on, unless otherwise revitalized by exciting news.
Fundamentally, I am convinced that, OCBC is good stock with all good figures and impressive profit. But if the Analyst now feel that the dividend/profit is not up to expectation, and downgraded it to neutral, & calling it as “not invigorating” enough in comparison to other banks; the short term price would be supressed. One of such report is reflected in the latest edition of The Edge (Mar 6 -12) echoing CIMK-GK’s report on the (Mar 1)

SingTel (T48) - To buy or to sell?

2006-03-04T19:08:00.000+08:00

SingTel (T48) is getting beautiful again! With a slowly buildup of volume (3)after the drying off, T48 is all geared up! It would'nt take much effort to discern all the upward momentum these few days. Support was very strong at $2.60, which was not tested yet. I’ve been observing its price behavior and it was undulating at $2.63. Last Friday was a clean and positive break away from it and closed at $2.65. When this is breached the next resistance is $2.70. Once this is broken, and based on exploiting its previous trend against the RH X axis (1), it rest nicely at $2.82. This can be taken as the TP. Confidence of Singtel always buildup around dividend day which is drawing near. This somehow props the upward price movement!
In sum, the brave grasp without confirmation, the conservative one would want to wait and see the neckline (2) of $2.67 broken first before plunge in!. Of course I've my choice, you can have yours too!

Ellipsiz (E13) as Requested

2006-03-03T01:06:00.000+08:00

Ellipsiz (E13) had a beautiful chart. The Price cut sharply across the 10 DEMA & moved upward decisively. The Guppy Chart also depicted a "fold up" smartly against the longer MAs’ peer. This signifies a strong up thrust convincingly, short term wise. In tandem, the Candlestick showed a runaway gap, which provides clue of an inevitable continuation of uptrend. Together with a top shadow, this candle could have been lethal, if it is in an extended uptrend. All are muted as currently it is a breakout against an ascending triangle. The CCI up at 50 would indicate to us that it is not overbought. Also its volume of 6 mil against the average of last 10 period (3.5mil) can be taken as increased interest. All the above pass my filters for entering a trade!
The –ve sides that I can see are the standing tail on top of the Candle, called “uptrust”. This, if seriously taken, would mean bull’s effort collapsed into bear dominance at the end of the day. Also ADX down at 25 cannot prove probability of a sure uptrend.
All in all, a very good candidate for entry, especially so when Tech share is currently in favour!

Time Out

2006-03-02T21:54:00.000+08:00

On the surface of it, STI looks good. But what actually happen only those who followed closely will know. China Stocks up in the morning and again losing its steam in the afternoon. So I’ve to go along. Piled up China Stock in the morning and disposed all in the afternoon with some profit. I see the Tech share like Chartered and StatsChip went up too fast to enter trade. I also tried the Federal (oil related) but went out when it also mellowed within the day. With commotions in Taiwan that angered China and tomorrow is Friday, a day in which most retail traders would avoid going long, it is better to stay on the sideline.

My CHINA Picks

2006-03-01T21:25:00.000+08:00

As yesterday, the morning was bad. Then, suddenly things changed. My China Paper as per my captioned before, delivered good news and the China Shoe maker, the Hongguo start to shine. I've no choice but to jump onto the China Wagon. I’m glad, I did. Also as from now, everything starts to be “China” again. China Power, and China Milk. Just heard over the CNBC: interview with China Milk top brass, they sounded convincing enough. They claimed they’ve a way to make the cow pregnant fast. Ha, ha, I just know that only pregnant cow produces milk!. Also in China the trend is fresh milk and even in their StarBuck, fresh milk is a must. Remember, grasp any laggard that carry the logo CHINA.

STI - Today

2006-02-28T17:44:00.000+08:00

Today STI strikes my forcasted lottery (2490)on the 15th Jan Last Posting on STI 15-Jan-2006 Although the timing is delayed, the concept is acheived,(Intraday STI 2462 - 2490 )
Tomorrow, Newspapers will have STI recorded highest within 6 years? But what does this means to the retail traders like us. Very choppy session seriously down in the morning; piggy backed Japan's fall and crept up in the afternoon. China plays (except for a few stocks) , down nerviously. Gainers were the banks, with the except of OCBC, downed by 5 cents, even with good results. Perhaps 12 cents dividend is not enough.

Asia Power as Requested

2006-02-27T21:59:00.000+08:00

From the Guppy Chart, there is nothing that can stop the up momentum. However, on scrutiny at the ADX (5 day) chart, something betrayed this notion. In particular, the ADX at 62, coupled with the D+ already hooked down; this to me, seemed to confirm the CCI as overbought (at 140) which mimicked similar hooked down pattern. The sudden drop in volume together with the reduced top shadowed White Candle emphasized Bears are already to move in with force.
There again, since it’s only 30% above 200MDA, it would appear that A03 is not so extended after all.
In conclusion, it could still have its puffs and whether it is a last puff or not, it is yet to be seen. Therefore, the best strategy is ride on the uptrend until, the downtrend is breached!

STI -Today

2006-02-27T18:11:00.000+08:00

As I’ve expected Keppel Corp
surged 30cents. However, most China stocks seemed to have mellowed. Banks were the big winners. STI today had breached the 2475 barrier; which means better days ahead. DBS View is Targetted as 2560 on the way!

Global Voice (H23) - Your Health!

2006-02-26T18:19:00.000+08:00

As I said, this is a Growth Stock and can't be punted. For those who have punted and asked for my view, this is what I've to say as per chart above. Conversely, I never rule out its growth potential. Key is how market will react to this stock after its coming earning announcement.
P/s This is no inducement to trade but fulfilling a request of my view.

Hongguo (H14) - That Shinning Shoe

2006-02-26T11:20:00.000+08:00

Another China/ small cap player. Particularly, the ADX (5day) with the D+ just flipped over positively. The CCI at -12 denotes a non- oversold position shooting up. We also can see the drying up of volume prior to its high volume breakout of the downward channel.
Fundamentally, at 7 X PER on 2006 earning, an ace against most competitors and with at DCF tagged at 44 cents, even conservative trader would be mouth watering now!

China Paper (C71) - A Paper that shall bring Good Tidings

2006-02-25T14:52:00.000+08:00

Beautifful China Play!. Just breakout from its down trend channel. A favourable just cross of 10/30 EMA and the best trampoline action steering off the Guppy mid MAs support. The rest is in the chart: Green means bullish, & Gray means neutral!

SingTel (T48) - Checking its Health!

2006-02-25T11:11:00.000+08:00

Currently resistance stands at $2.64 and Support at S2.54. Short term trend still intact (means anytime can goes up also)but currently trending down. From the ADX, the probability of near term down is high. I'm a bit ambivalent to enter trade now. So wait and see!. Remember what the Gurus say : "buy on support!"

Keppel Corp (K02) Look like Nothing can stop you from rising!

2006-02-25T02:07:00.000+08:00

See the Guppy chart,the high volume and the breached Price Channel! Is it the IR boost?

" A Breast in hand is worth more than two in a Bra"

2006-02-23T12:33:00.000+08:00

The Moral of the story is take profit, as long as it is a profit, take first! especially so in Bear Market. All the small things will add to a big dream, and don't be greedy!. However, in bull market do the reverse, let the profit rides!

How I made a small Fortune but Frightened!

2006-02-22T19:38:00.000+08:00

Believe it or not, I do it by going against the TA principle. Went in on Bad chart, not following the trend and fishing the bottom. Stocks are: Sing Tel, SPC, DBS, NOL & StarHub. Then, I read the Japanese woman and her principles of buying the cheapest Tofu; I tend to understand it. But she did it in the Bull Market. But now STI is certainly bearish! I’m an afraid because I’m slowly throwing away my TA’s principles and turning to be a Gambler! I surely know the outcome of it. Therefore, I’m now trying to stay away from the market. Why, I cannot be so lucky all the time, as luck has its limit.

STI - A Morning Star

2006-02-21T19:11:00.000+08:00

China up, Japan up and HK up. Together with a Morning Star sighted, tomorrow will be better! Right?

StarHub (T54) - Look for a Star - A Falling Star

2006-02-20T23:06:00.000+08:00

StarHub (T54) looks attractive to me now. Last 2 day’s decline of more than 18 cents (8%) provides good entry opportunity. Its 61.8% retractment from its last peak was $1.97; which already been passed now. I really don’t know what was the reason for the drop, and if it is the M2 World & the Internet TV matters, certainly StarHub has been over punished. In fact, the recent Budget announcement should on contrary benefited StarHub most. Anyway, the downside is surely limited to $1.84 which coincided with the 100% retractment; meaning this figure added significance to it as a support level.
The strategy would be risky as we are fishing for the unknown bottom, but as I said the limited downside may warrant the risk taken. Again, the oversold condition seem too good to be missed. To dip toes in the water, we can do a small accumulation first, wait and see, then decide to average up or be a patient sitter for a small baby. Why? If not, you may be surprised when the up shoot do arrive, it comes so fast that the brain and hands are too slow in comparison

SingTel (T48) - To Sell or Not to Sell?

2006-02-18T16:34:00.000+08:00

Fundamentally, SingTel (T48) is cash rich. The price now is certainly propped up by the special dividend of an anticipated 18 cents based on $2.5-$3 billion at hand. Analysts’ TP ranged from $2.75 to $2.88. Then again, now to May, who knows, anytime can happen in the stock market?
Technically, Price looks a bit extended, with 45DMA cut down on its 15DMA peer. Candlestick wise, it is not a good sign to have black Candle after a Doji. RSI and CCI already streaming Overbrought!
On the neutral stand are the MACD and the OBV. In case of the MACD, although the envelope showed deteriorating, and the 2 signals are slowly running out of stream, the picture still looks OK. Similarly OBV’s short trend line is not breached.
On the optimist side, I like the ADX which is up 30.7 and the low volume accompanying the price drop.
A decision has to be made, & what is analyzed now can surely be very help on the ground. I've watched closely on the Price Action, and feel that $2.7 resistance is very hard to break. These few prior sessions were the strugglings to maintain at $2.66. So, let’s see what’s next?
In retrospect, my previous calls on the 21Jan 2006 & subsquently on the 6 Feb 2006:
It's Average up Time
Buying for a Song
OCBC Analyst's Report

Global Voice (H23) - Still vocal on Global Voice?

2006-02-18T11:52:00.000+08:00

11 days ago, I have mentioned on this stock and advised not to punt but buy for growth. This is a junction where the ability to control the emotion will be the greatest asset to have. Let’s not be blinded by the recent bearish sentiment of the market and take an objective look at the current situation.
Before that, let me elaborate on it fundamentally. This stock has always been a punter’s paradise, but institutional buyers never like its business model. And the company’s balance sheet has been –ve. But according to Kim Eng, there is great potential ahead. So the purchase is for “growth” in future, not immediate. As I have mentioned in my shout box to a reader: “if you lose patience, you’ll lose money”.
That being said, now we can analyze the probability. From the chart, we can see that, the immediate support of 0.16 has been (or near) tested for more than 10 times. It’s a very strong support, unlikely to be breached easily. OBV has just touches its own trend line but not broken yet. CCI at -94 denotes a much oversold state. Volume low with accompanying low price does not look threatening to me. This is the ideal situation where the Big Boy will gain money by inducing fear to retailer investors. So called shaking off the weak hands and buy it cheap. Nicely put, they cleverly buy on support and make money selling on resistance.
Of course, if the immediate support is breached the next support is 0.12; synced with the reversed amplitude agaisnt the peak of the single top. The choice is also yours!
The Edge (Feb20-26) on Global Voice

STI -Today

2006-02-16T18:06:00.000+08:00

Looking at the intraday on the right sidebar, it would appear that the STI is shaky. As I mentioned yeaterday, one day up and the next down just indicate a nervous market. Despite the gain today, and the good Candlestick of a Bullish Harimi, I still stay cautious. Many factors forthcoming can change the faith of STI. On the upside, the Budget announcment tomorrow and on the downside, US's persistent interest rate hike can swing the bullish upturn dead stone!

Semb Kimstran (S52) as Requested

2006-02-15T21:32:00.000+08:00

Very bad chart. 15 DMA already cut downward by a Dormant clear shaven Black Candle. OBV and its short term trend already violated. RSI curled down at 48. Furthermore, MACD's 2 signals just -ve rolled over. Togehter with the synced bearish signal Candlestick, it just looks like the momentum of fail will continue!

STI -Today

2006-02-15T20:49:00.000+08:00

Against expectation, STI performed badly today. The chart shows badly as above. If we started to have another symptom of 1 day up and next day down, the market is exhibiting its unstability. So it is better to be cautious.

SPC - (S99) - Buying Cheap!

2006-02-15T01:27:00.000+08:00

I like SPC (S99) not because the chart is beautiful. It is because I see upcoming bullish potential. From the ADX at 28.9 and curling down, I tend to feel that the downtrend has mellowed. Of course chart don’t lie, particularly the more sensitive Candlestick. So what do we have: It’s up to you to put it, a short tailed Dragonfly Doji, Bullish Harami, or an up and coming Morning Star? They are all bullish in potent. As I‘ve said before, it is so sweet to buy on Oversold condition... So RSI at 40 and CCI curled up at -160 exhibited in concert to confirm it. The current price $4.98 is well supported and particularly so in anticipation of the coming more than 31cents dividend. Thus, currently the price looks cheap. Of course Oil is down now, but it would not be at this level for long. The fact that the current chart suggested good probability of reversal, hence, being an early bird will surely catch the best worm. It is not to say that we can rule out downside, but it would be limited. With the STI currently a bullish 3 Inside Up, and the good feeling of Election Sweeteners to be announced this Friday, timing cannot be better! If I have to grip some, I'll try this one!
Business Times Report

China Flexible Package Holding (C59) has a bad chart

2006-02-13T23:54:00.000+08:00

China Flexible Package Holding (C59) has a bad chart. 3 black crows pointing towards a bearish environment. OBV already kissed its trend line and the 15 DMA also violated. ADX curled down, RSI equally bearish and cut crossed the 50 mark MACD also already –ve crossed... The clear cut out pattern happened to be very bearish Double Top. From the chart wise it is unlikely for an upward movement any time soon. Probability of more falls is great!

DataCraft (D06) - To Buy or not to buy ?

2006-02-11T11:10:00.000+08:00

After 12 sessions of upward movement, the chart looks tired and extended. Although, Spinning Top can move either way, I tends to lean more onto the decline. Why? The Spinning Top also looks like Bearish Harimi in concept), current nervous market condition, STI overbought and the following indicators provided clues to confirm its severity in tandem; pointing to the overbought condition! Stochastic @ 80 and –ve crossed, RSI @ 69 and started curling down. However, main uptrend is not violated. This can be seen from the ADX and MACD chart.Better to be on the cautious side; surely, the experienced traders will agree with me, how painfully it will be to err and be caught on the dumping (distribtion)cycle.
FA: I'm sure all the good news had been factored in and in conclusion: if in it already, hold ,and for current sideliners, better to keep hands in pockets now and not on keyboard!

NOL (N03)- Buy on Weakness

2006-02-10T18:48:00.000+08:00

NOL (03) looks attractive now after 2 days of sell down amounting to 11 cents loss. This opportunity can be taken due to: 1. After Xd, the dumping was overdone and 2.Again chance to buy strong stock on weak market 3. Shipping could be on the recovery (Shipping recovery ). Based on today’s experience, cycles of upturn are short. Meaning Singaporean goes for small profit and trade on very short period, & also always finding excuse taking small profit. So, our strategy ought to follow. Buy at approx (STI 2350 and Sell at STI 2450). However, this one is exceptional for the above 3 reasons.TA is important, but sometime environment/situation can overwrite if the reasons are valid. Chart wise nothing good to talk about except that OBV trend is not breached. By the way, my thinking is still technically correct: the so called TA's principle of " buying on corrective pullback"!

STI -Today

2006-02-09T17:18:00.000+08:00

Much better than I've expected. Up in the morning and down in the middle and ended slightly above flat.Candlestick- Bullish Homing Pigeon after yesterday's failing evening star.

DBS Bank (D05) - Buying Strong Share in Weak Market

2006-02-08T19:52:00.000+08:00

I single out DBS not because the Bank has a beautiful chart. Conversely, the chart is far away from it. As far as, the Main trend line and the OBV’s trend line are not breached, this one can be exceptional. Why? Today, downturn across the Asia was led by the Japanese again; this is an opportunity at its best. I see strong support level at $16.20. TP can be met at $17.20, the peak at early Jan 2006. DBS today, down 30 cents provided opportunity for the so called “accumulating strong share in weak market”. Also, UBS Investment is bullish on DBS as benefactor from the anticipated reflating economy. Furthermore, Macquarie is seeing the future in anticipation of the 17th Feb goodies announcement and the unveiling of the Government’s Budget then. They also mentioned capital restricting and the theme that would be expected to shift to property sector once again. All these activities speak well for the Banks

Global Testing (G31) as Requested

2006-02-07T22:18:00.001+08:00

Global Testing (G31) has beautiful chart. See the mini Double Bottom with the Ascending Triangle? Also the last 7 period Consolidation was breakout today with high volume. All the important indicators indicated in the chart are very expressive of a Bullish environment ahead. These confirmations can be summed as not dangerously overbrought, and a very good upside with good probability of near term upthrust. Fundamentally, G31 has good revenue growth (>5%) and trading at approx 1.4 times(considered good within the same industry) FY2006 P/BV. DMC & Partner is calling a “buy” with TP 41.5 cents within 12 months.

Global Voice (H23) Buying for the Future!

2006-02-07T12:16:00.000+08:00

I like Global Voice (H23) now for the following reasons: Recent smart acquisition; more so on the management of cash flow, i.e. its loan management policy and its quick and confident materialization of revenue almost instantly. In research wise,
Henderson Technology Team views “Fibre to Home telecom” as the key driver that could be the impetus for 2006 product cycle of IT spending. Also according to the recent Edge, 2 Analysts are bullish on this frequent Volume topper with Targeted Price as 26 to 28 cents. Chart wise, it really looks good. OBV, CCI and RSI are beautiful, with D+ just moved above its D- , and also not over brought. This is the stock that I single out to gain reward not as of now, but for future. So don’t punt on this but invest to get better gain!

SingTel (T48) - It's Average up time!

2006-02-06T21:24:00.000+08:00

Anyway you tweak it, SingTel will turn out good! Inverted Head and Shoudlers or a Cup & handle, you name it!. I really like the volume dried up as price went down and the increasing volume with today’s climb. The 8 and 13 DMA were converging towards a roll over. This is a “Golden Cross “ to buy. MACD signals just crossed but still in –ve territory is telling us a good upside can be envisaged. In fact, this is my favourable point to pile up! The Candlestick pattern is now exhibiting a “Engulfing Bull”. This is suggesting of a price surge as buyer now move in with enthusiasm. The OBV is continuing to make higher low and RSI halted its decent and now curled up at 54. Both tell in concert that probability of upside is great. Earning report on Wednesday and huge hot cash in hand, to me there is no better time than now!

Kim Eng's View

My Previous Posting

P/s CNA News Lastest: SingTel won legal case against StarHub

STI - Doji, Doji, what do you mean?

2006-02-05T17:31:00.001+08:00

A couple of readers had written to me to explain in detail the concern of these double doji. For those professionals, kindly bear with me for awhile.
Conversely, I will not dwell on the double Doji (FYI Doji got no plural), as per se. I look out for sign to unearth whether it is corrective down or a long term violation of the main trend (true reversal)
Let’s look at the chart in detail: (1) to (2) means impending reversal, i.e. alert/caution only especially after an extended uptrend.
The Gap X and Gap Y increase the significance of the reversal pattern. To benefit from the Candlestick pattern, I look for clue to benefit from it! In this case, I go for volume and pattern (3) to confirm the robustness of the evening star. See, what we’ve? Relative low volume and another doji against prior doji. Based on Candlestick theory, (3) ought to be Black(here is red) and ideally long, so as to be convincing and hence dramatize its effect. So what does it means? Evidences gathered showed that the impact is only likely to be short-term in nature. This bearish intent served to temporarily halt the bullish uptrend for a few periods. The uptrend would likely to be flattened or consolidated for a while, but will then resume! Why so confident? Volume sync: down with low volume. Pattern (3) was another indecisive doji, not good enough to invite the bear in positively.
Conclusion: Scenario A

STI - What will be today?

2006-02-03T08:30:00.000+08:00

Look at the STI chart it looks a bit over extended. With Doji at this juncture, it it better to be cautious. All indicators are good and probability of upside remains strong, coupled with huge volume. However, With USA doing badly as in the chart, the rest would have to be played by seeing!

OCBC (O39) updated

2006-02-01T20:58:00.000+08:00

OCBC has a beautiful Chart formation now. A breakout of the regression channel with vol of 6.4 Mil against the most recent 10 period average of 5.1 mil. The CCI demotes a short term of not overbought but remained neutral with longer term stands bullish. See the OBV against its trend line – a tilt positively upwards indicative of good buying pressure. The MACD with both signals lines rolled over and set to cross into bullish zone soon. A single bottom pattern empowered its bullish robustness. Also, its significance re-emphasized by the price drifting away and moved above the 15 D MA. UBS is bullish on OCBC with its emphasis on the bank’s capital realization

Chartered (C27) Updated

2006-01-31T13:01:00.000+08:00

Since my last posting on the 9th instant, the chart had indeed followed the path of the Scenarios 1-2-3 as predicted. Of course in reality, it was not a smooth sailing towards the anticipated TP 0f $1.49. In between a Sine wave was formed. I believed the more nervous one has been wiped out since then. On the big picture a single bottom and a rising wedge were formed. The new support level now is $1.38. We shall see the materialization of the TP soon. Expectedly, we may encounter whipsaws along the way. As I am writing, my other screen showed Chartered USA at US$8.36 down by 0.16. With the breakout on high volume outside the regression channel , a good +ve result and its product highly demanded in the consumer sector, Chatered should perform well!

My Market, My Picks!

2006-01-26T23:58:00.000+08:00

Traditionally, UTAC is a stock akin to "Buy on Rumor and Sell on News". I'm
glad this time is different. Perhaps, the margin of profit widened now. Statschp,
the Ugly Duckling that I brave against the Trend and TAs and brought it; turned out to be a "Prince Swan"! According to Netresearch, Statchp Cash Flow is still red ,yet today's performance was commendable. This means more upside can be expected. Chart also looks better and encouraging.

As I cautioned yesterday, Cosco was down 2 cents. My new found love, SingTel
turned "sexy" and did not fail me today. A good 6 cents up. In fact, intraday
limit was 8 cents. SingTel is a stock that I really like and vested in and out
a couple times already.

Off track abit, to be successful in Singapore Market, we have to take a certain
amount of risk; for instant, if we will to wait for confirmation of uptrend,
we are already too late! And if you watch carefully, buying on most Breakouts
are often met with Dead on Arrival (DOA); even in high volume environment. Meaning
a step too late, and often has to "hold baby" after purchased. Trading
cannot be played with a prefectly sure endeavour, for instance, to buy SingTel
at $2.47, we reckon that is too risky. Now at $2.53, we say that is too expensive,
price too high now so to speak! So, so, you see the logic?

Tomorrow, I shall not expect any huge movement as the weaker hands will take
the chip off the table prior to the Holiday and enjoy their Chinese New year.
This is understandable! After the holiday, Tech and Oil related company can
still have a go for some profit. In far term, surely, other sector will rein.
You will notice that I am a bit "long-winded" on this sector thing. Why? As
simple as this: "If You are in the right sector, the probability of winning
is great, and you WIN!" Surely, this is what we are here for! Right?

Reviewing My Picks

2006-01-25T23:53:00.000+08:00

It’s time to elaborate on my picks. Tech and China stocks have done well. In particular, UTAC is a star performance . Beauty China already exceeded my TP and Cosco also doing well.
Statschpac and Chartered done well today. To be on the safe side, caution must be accorded to Statchp’s tomorrow morning earning report. Quick action must be taken in line with the whim and fancy of the Analyst. Also Cosco today's last minute huge selling must be monitored carefully as the price had factored in new contract signed. MMI and HuanHsin should continue to do well. I like SingTel and include it in my new pick.Why? I don't want to miss the anticipated Cash payout and good dividend. Even, the share should go down, it will be propped up by its good dividend and its remarkable reputation! Evidenced from today, Market is still directionless and in view of many holidays to come, it is inevitable that some profit-takings around the corner must be factored in. In doubt, don’t enter trade, in fear don’t dump share emotionally. Therefore, it is also safe to maintain a plan and Target price, and only take what the market can give!

Stats-chippac-is-expected-to-report tomorrow morning

2006-01-25T14:07:00.000+08:00

Merrill Lynch said it expects the company to guide a "mid
single-digit sales decline" in the first quarter.
"Our channel checks suggest 3G handset chips could remain strong
during the first quarterof 2006 while PC, wireline and consumer could
experience a seasonal correction," Merrill Lynch said.
Three brokerages forecasts STATS ChipPAC to report a net profit
of between 38-71 mln usd this year.For Detail Click Here

Huan Hsin (H16) as Requested

2006-01-25T09:07:00.000+08:00

Huan Hsin is now in oversold condition. OBV showed danger of crossing its own trend line. However, hope is evidenced in ADX down with D-ve in tandem. This means downtrend mellowed. The CCI @ -121 and tilting up confirmed the inevitable ending of near time downtrend. Also the price is now edging the 45 Day MA and 38.2% retractment. This signifies good near term upside. Fundamentally, analyst screaming good fortune ahead of Hardisk sector’s good potential earning due to its “hotting –up” of usage in consumer product. This stock is still in the process of unwinding its expected good performance.

STI - What's Next?

2006-01-24T04:39:00.001+08:00

Yesterday, as expected, selling was across the board.. However, it was not as severe as I‘ve imagined! With USA on very unstable footing, oil up,Japan down 300 pts again, commotion in the Middle East and etc. it would not be sensible now to be aggressive in the market, that is, as far as I’m concern. As many had said, this market is now for the “lion heart” only. All is not the end yet, the Business Times is yelling SemiConductor recovery and the Hard Disk Company’s glory and good results, in particular, the outstanding Seagate. Since Singapore Economy is doing well, Banks will definitely benefit from it. In sum, selective bargaining (DBS View ) still can be sought after, but with eyes on screen! As I’m writing Dow is up 35.14 and NASDAQ 2.11 respectively. Chartered and Statchpac had managed in +ve territory. A peek at the on STI Chart showed a bearish tone.My favourable Picks list is still maintained! Today shall be better, but it is better to be careful and trade with caution and patience!

USA - Beware - Dow & Nasdaq down - Friday

2006-01-21T12:07:00.000+08:00

Dow down 213.32, Nasdaq down 54.11,Singapore Tech as above.For
Detail

SingTel (T48) - Buying for a Song!

2006-01-21T00:28:00.000+08:00

I like the Oversold condition. A Double Bottom is set to complete its cycle. The Candlestick already had halted its descend and the prior spinning top was replaced by a bullish one of different color. The CCI Tilted up towards -100, and was perfectly matched by the RSI of reversed curl up at 36 As with the Price chart the RSI has its higher lower in comparison with its prior low. This confirmed the Candlestick signal and formed impetus to propel upwards. The 61.8% retractment is telling us a reversal northwards is a very good probability. So the Supports stand as 2.42 and 2.33; can be taken as Immediate and Secondary Support respectively. Immediate Resistance 2.58. And when broken, TP of 2.62 can be realized. Cut loss at the Immediate Support of 2.42. For comparison, other view included. My humble hunch is that we are buying The Singing “Telcom”: with a Song! Furthermore, buying now means capitalizing on the good Telcom environment. M1 and StarHub have been “hotting up” in recent trading periods.

STI - A Tango Dance!

2006-01-19T21:19:00.000+08:00

Just as Everyone expected today to be groomy, it rebounced with a Vengeance.
There was even one confidence eroding guy, posted a CNA Forum's thread yesterday
that China play was over, just because he is going on holiday. Indeed, a bad
& Cruel
Guy-(it pays to read Donkey in the well when you are free) with purpose to effect panic selling. I really pitied those weak hands &
Itchy front siders, whom may lost a fortune by his cruel words. Caution aside, today
China Plays and Tech rebounced. It was like a Tango dance: two steps forward
and one step back. I really doubted people has benefited. All Market has taken
in 2 days was returned today. With
an Uncertain USA still at the back of our head, the following few days can be
quite unstable. For other view, click here:! . Also SemiConductor
-Morgan Stanley Report
The logic of 1-2-3 scenario
still follows. Except, that the timing was put forwarded by the 2nd largest
exchange commotion. Buy on support 2350 and sell on 2380 and the rest is in Last Posting on STI 15-Jan-2006

STI - Blood on the Street!

2006-01-18T17:44:00.000+08:00

Today another sell off day. STI closed 2359 on High volume. Trend line was broken as the chart. It's better to be cautious. Based on the chart with many TA indicators being bearish, tomorrow can be another bad day!

STI - Too Good to be True!

2006-01-17T23:46:00.000+08:00

As we were saying, I expected STI to be 2380pt today, it is 2377pt. I don't like the way the market was performing. It was all sunny, that sudden downpours within 2 hours in the afternoon. Cause was Nikkei down 457 pts a hefty 2.8%. All the neighbouring areas were not spared. Of the greatest hit were the Red Chip, the China Share. The immediate support was broken and tomorrow is the crucial& deciding direction. Let's see!

STI - What we thought will happen, happened!

2006-01-16T23:51:00.000+08:00

As discussed STI down and tomorrow expect another down day. Hope its intraday can provides opportunity for some mild accumulation. Chartered has performed well,and I think many gutty heroes had a go with it intraday wise! In a down market today, Cosco remained flat. It's a sign of strength. Most stocks cannot be gained when the market is up, by then it will be too late. So long, see tomorrow STI go down to 2380?

STI - Seeing its FUTURE Today!

2006-01-15T16:42:00.000+08:00

Reporting what‘s happening is easy. Anticipating what’s coming is the reverse! Let’s make an attempt to analyze the STI and formulate the likely outcome. Using the usual Scenario 1-2-3, the Chart and Table inset paint a thousand words! This hypothesis expects whipsaws and is not infallible, but it just provides an educated plan with a good probability of success. There are many reasons and rationales in the actions to be taken, but I think it’s too lengthy to explain now. So we shall go along with it first and does the explanation some other time as the events unwind. On the stock wise, I still maintain my near term movers as Tech : Charted, StatChipac, MMI, Huan Hsian, Jur Tech and UTAC; China Play: Beauty China, China Wheel and Cosco; Bank: OCBC. So long! Got to help the Mistress of the House to clear the house for CNY before she threatens divorce again!

StatChipPac (S24) - The Ugly Stock That I Love to Buy!

2006-01-13T23:35:00.000+08:00

All indicators are bad. You name it: RSI, Stochastic,William’s R%, Acc/Distrn, OBV, ROC & etc. ADX and D-v up in concert, showing downtrend and still going down. MACD –ve crossed and dropping. Also a bearish inverted head and shoulder was formed. Then what is the rational to buy now?
I like the oversold condition. This is confirmed by the CCI (3)-195. Further, everyone know that buying stock that is oversold reduces downside risk You can notice the Gap(1) down today kissed the lower end of the Bollinger Band, which normally acted as a support.. Actually when stock dipped on very heavy volume it is dangerously bearish omen. But the open interest today also interested me. We know that the open was 1.03 and closed at 1.05. That cannot be bearish! To me, today's selling with high price down was overreacting. Fundamentally, news of Placement could be the cause. As if in agreement with my hunch, Morgan Stanley is calling a Buy with TP of 1.35. This is not to say that I believe Analyst report but its report surely influences the short term emotion of Singapore Trader. So, this got to be factored in, especially short term wise. To conclude, I’m not apprehensive about buying this stock against the trend and the principle of TA as from experience the “low hanging fruit” must be plucked by the “early bird” with gut. You may have interest in previous Posting on 30 Dec 2005
P/s AlreaDy got wind that Result to be reported on the 26 Jan is good!

SPH - UOB Kay Hian Report

2006-01-13T14:27:00.000+08:00

STI - Today

2006-01-12T21:07:00.000+08:00

Today profiting-taking day across the board!. A shrewd investor will definitely more concern now on the general market direction. The chart for STI didn’t look good at all. Based on a normal cycle period of Singapore which last for 3 to 5 days, it would appear that the selling heat shall continue for awhile. Also see the STI Intraday on this Blog's top right column which exhibited an ending down trend unable to lift up at last minute. This could mean a "spill over" of the bearish mood tomorrow!. Hmmm.. 11.27 points dropped on high volume of 1.299bil – that is no good. The Candlestick also confirmed a bleak short term. A shooting star followed by 2 crows!! All the fearful things happened: RSI down across 50 mark, CCI screamed Overbought and ADX bent down against the 40 line! Of course the main trend is still intact, short term looks bad! I shall leave the support and resistance to you to figure out and spend more time to prepare for tomorrow’s plan: to take crucial action to protect my profit/capital if deemed fit!

China Wheel (E94) - A Gem that turned to Wheel of Fortune

2006-01-12T00:45:00.000+08:00

Since my last calling (E94) it a GEM and alerted its opportunity on the 3 Jan 06, another breakdown has occurred today. Looking at the Chart, I can safely say that no one can find fault with it. Why? It’s very beautiful and prefect, all indicators included. OBV flied rocket high and I like so much the ADX at 30. White Candle was dormant, decisive and aggressively pointing upwards. Further there is a Single Bottom so nicely formed. Theoretically based on TA principal, Target Price of 0.40 can be achieved. This is calculated with depth of the trough reversed upwards. Probability of continuation of today’s uptrend is very high based on this breakout with the Big White Candle,having exceptionally high volume (16.8 mil Vs 3 mil of the average 10 periods) and all indicators supporting its robustness. Fundamentally, dealings of Nissan , the booming of Car Manufacturing in China and a very solid balance sheet, nothing could go wrong, right?. Sure, but there is a threat if Aluminum price goes up!You may have interest in last Posting on Jan3 2006

Cosco (C21) Updated, Analysis and My trade!

2006-01-10T16:13:00.000+08:00

Let’s update Cosco. From Chart 1, I’ve mentioned buy 1 and buy 2 (see below) in my previous posts. The rational and the TPs are self explanatory. Before that, let’s prioritizes our focus. Basically, we would have to lean more to Volume and the Trend line (Western Tools). Of course, not forgetting our CandleStick in the East. From my scrutiny, it would appear that the main Trend line is healthy and bullish. So the previous “corrective” bouts had not tampered its “impulsive” action. Meaning the trend is Bullish! As usual the tell tale sign cannot escaped my eyes. We can see the stock was going up in an unnatural sense. See what? Price up and volume down progressively. This demonstrated a lack of quality volume since price was moving up (effect) without real volume (cause) –the moves were not real (see Chart 2). So now let's see what our Jap’s Candlestick has to say! Wonderful: a kind of like a “3 White Soldiers”. That is Bullish. The battle of the West and East has started! So how? Let’s analyze further. The current resistance of aprox 2.43 has been tested 7 times! And our current price just kisses 100 Day MA. OBV and RSI look fine. CCI still steady at 149. Though in Overbought zone ,I consider it’s threatening only when it bent down and cut across the 100 mark.. ADX down on the cooling of the previous Downtrend; with still D positively placed. Volume suggested reversal and Candlesticks said No! The rest is up to your imagination. I bang on the current “Hot –up” of China Stock and do my own projection as in Chart (1). Of course, Ears on Ground and Eyes on Screen to effect action and implement it when situation so called for!
You may have interest in Buy 1, 21 Dec 2005
and also Buy 2, on 3 Jan 2006

Chartered (S27) Updated as Requested

2006-01-09T22:09:00.000+08:00

Today has been good for me. Many stocks which we used to discuss in this blog had rallied. For example, Fuyu, Beauty China, Hsin Hian, MMI, UTAC, China Wheel,Nera Comm.& ETC The laggards are SPH, Chartered, and Sing Tel.
Many readers had informed me of their concern on Chartered, so let’s analyze Chartered again. I‘ve look at the chart and confirmed that the overall trend is still bullish. OBv still look pretty strong and upholding. The Candlestick had exhibited a look alike “Bullish Harima” and I like the volume sync with low price increase. I must admit that CCI looks dangerous though as it had curled down across the 100 mark. This confirmed Overbought which was in concert with the Stochastic. RSI still looked comfortable. I believe money has to be earned. Therefore it requires Patience, Tact and Gut to make a Profit. Let’s look at my last Posting on the Jan 4 2006.
It can go both ways Up (2A) or Down (3). With much good reports on Chartered, targeted at $1.60 and with the current Tech Sector still in favor, I shall not part this stock at this time!

SPH (T39) - Accumulating time!

2006-01-06T20:29:00.000+08:00

Today is accumulating day for SPH. A lot of wise guys are doing it now as kissing MA 15Day has got a lot of upside. However, from the Ascending Wedge, we know that there was diminishing buyer pressure at $4.38. The Candle Stick also portrayed Bearish rejection at 3 points on the resistance. But with the D+ just crossed above D- and seeing that today’s profit taking has not affected on this sexy darling, it is a matter of time, volume shall increase and “fly” is the future word! So Pile up now?

You may have interest in SPH Evolution on 22 Dec 2005
and also on 11 Dec 2005

Nera TeleComm (N01) Updated as Requested

2006-01-06T18:26:00.000+08:00

Since my last Posting on the 22 Dec 2005, the situation has been totally reversed. The Double Top within the Triangle and the Dead Cross had not happened and instead the dangerous position was pulled back and rallied.
Let’s do a post mortem. The 22nd instant low point (2) was having a lower low relative to (1). What caught my eyes was the Volume of (1) was doubled than of (2). This was suggesting that down force was weakening. You can also see from the chart that the next day’s volume was a dried up. Thus, all these would inevitably form a perfect launching pad for the 27th Dec rally. Since then the columns of volume were very steep and this magnified its aggressiveness and sustainability.
Today as expected, the usual Friday, profit-taking day for those stocks that have been up this week. Nera Com dropped 1 cent (49 cents) on lower volume (1.068Mil) should be taken as a healthy breather. Since Nera is cash rich, this stock should have the potential to ripe profit on longer term.
The key question here is the short term overbought? So let’s see! The Black Candle can be down played by the CCI still though above 100 level; has not go under it. As if in agreement, the stochastic trend is still upward, suggesting similar story of the “still safe” environment.
Based on the last preceding high against the Sept last year low, your last puff (short term TP before correction) shall be approx 1.618 Retractment equal to 52 cents. The support line stands at 46.5 cents

OCBC (O39) updated

2006-01-05T22:22:00.000+08:00

OCBC currently exhibited a beautiful chart. I like the clinging of the upper Bolinger Band and its MACD signals opened with aggressiveness in the Bullish Zone. No hiccup on the envelopes that sloped upwards evenly. The Momentum and ADX chart were perfect conditions to induce a buying spree. Certainly, no cause for worry of Overbought as long as the CCI that curl downwards is still above the 100 mark. Among the banks, OCBC still look a reasonable value to get in. Also bear in mind, in the air, the next rotational play shall be the Bank!

Chartered USA (CHRT) Rally

2006-01-05T07:48:00.000+08:00

Dow + 32.74 & Nadaq + 19.72

Chartered C27 - No Pain, No Gain!

2006-01-04T23:00:00.000+08:00

Chartered (C27) has become a very interesting play! It’s certainly not for those who are fearful of height. Two interesting factors to consider when wanted to enter the trade at this time. Is it overbought; meaning, it is considered overextended, or will the trend reverse soon or dead on Entry (DOE)?
Since my last posting -hypothesis a 1-2-3 scenario, it would appear that (2A) can be realized. Then, any evidence to warrant its proceeding?
Let me answer the later part first. If we have a close look, at Chart 1, we can see, a Rising Wedge formed. Borrowed principle from Elliot Wave, we must ascertain whether, this newly formed Wedge is "impulsive (continue the Main trend)" or "corrective (small movement counter to the trend)" to evaluate its Bullishness or otherwise. In essense, the lower trend line (Red Arrow) rises at a steeper slope than the upper trend line(Green Arrow) and these two lines converge as price extends –the point is that the higher high is not keeping pace with the higher low; this reflects diminishing buying pressure at higher levels. To me, confirmation of a Bearish Connotation’s prerequisite is low volume accompanying this type of wedge. But luckily, we have relatively high volume and the last high is still higher than the previous high (the High before Wedge was formed). So the bet is off! Why? Because only low volume can reflect a lack of conviction in the advance and increases the chance of the unwanted but successful bearish reversal!
Then come to the first part: I used the CCI (Chart 2) again to confirm it is overbought or not. And it’s NOT! In support, the OBV is rising strongly against its bottom trend line. Further, I love sexy ADX at 20 somethings and still rising. It means the trend is not only young and upcoming but most importantly upthrusting with strength. Also, MACD signals positively crossed and the MACDH envelopes are forming a Young and Vigorous slope upward. I must be faired also to mention that the Doji at this height can be dangerous too!
In sum, this is for the Brave Heart, Strong Hand and Serene Mind! Target at $1.49 (100% retracement) and Cut loss at 1.31 the middle of the white supporting Candle. Like they say “No Pain no Gain”, right?
N/B No document/material here is a solicitation to buy or sell. You are advised to think carefully and take your own responsibility for all consequences

Chartered (C27) Merrill Lynch Report

2006-01-04T16:49:00.000+08:00

SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) - Merrill Lynch said it has raised its fair value
for
Chartered Semiconductor to 1.60 sgd from 1.19 sgd as it expects the
stock
to provide better returns this year because of improving revenue and
margins.

      "We raise Chartered's 2006 return on invested capital forecast
from 5
pct to 8 pct on slightly higher margin assumptions, but still expect
returns to average 10 pct in 2007," Merrill Lynch analyst Dan Heyler
said
in a note.

      "Chartered's profitability should continue to steadily improve in
2006. A well thought-out recovery strategy, which has been in place
for
over two years, is likely to show important operational and financial
milestones in 2006," Heyler said.

      "We believe profitability is rising on its mature capacity, while
its
improved technology road map is attracting new customers that will
generate economies of scale on 300 millimeter [platform]," he added.

      While the market in general expects Chartered's revenues to
decline
5-10 pct in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, Heyler said
such
expectations may prove conservative.

      "We believe 200 millimeter could show growth in the first
quarter,
while 300 millimeter should be flat, given strong Xbox 360
microprocessor
loading," Heyler said, adding that overall Chartered's revenue in the
first quarter should be sequentially flat to down 5.0 pct.

      For the whole of 2006, Merrill Lynch expects Chartered to post a
net
profit of 153.90 mln usd, reversing the estimated net loss of 169 mln
usd
for 2005. Net profit should grow further to 234.54 mln usd in 2007, it
said.

      At 11.11 am, Chartered was up 0.03 sgd or 1.02 pct at 2.98, with
3.40
mln shares traded.

Cosco (C21) - It's Average up Time!

2006-01-03T21:14:00.000+08:00

High Volume, MACD and Stochastic best entry point!

China Wheel (E94) Gem Spotted

2006-01-03T19:47:00.000+08:00

China Wheel (E94) depicted a so beautiful chart today. To me is a breakout off the Trend Line! The MACD was perfect for entry with + ve crossed in below Equilibrium. Meaning a good upside room can be expected. In tandem, the D+ve just Crossed above D-ve. I like to use CCI to confirm the Overbought State. It is now showing a cut above the -100 and towards the 100 zone – an ideal call for a Buy! A target price of 0.375 (near 61.8 retracement) should be aimed for. But it has to clear the 1st level of resistance at .330.

STI - Today - What a Beautiful Day

2006-01-03T17:39:00.000+08:00

All up. You name it : Blue Chips, Red Chips and Penny Stock, Tech Stock!!
STI closed 2,369 up 22.03 point. Heavy volume = 1,047,182,410 , Gainers 467 against Losers 124.
ST Index breakout from the 1 and a half month triangular consolidation. As long as 2337 holds further advance 2430 -2450 can be envisaged. If not, long position not encouraged. Oil and Gas looks good with our Vodka friend killed crude oil supply.
If Rally continues ,make sure money is enough to ride on it!!!!

It's 2006 ! Happy New Year

2006-01-01T00:00:00.000+08:00

Beauty China (B15) - TA and its Study

2005-12-31T21:59:00.000+08:00

Not all Breakouts have got trendy potential. As in sailing, it is important to know which way the wind blows (in trading we mean trending direction and its sustainability) and at what speed (Trend strength). Beauty China Chart (2) shows 2 distinctive patterns: Simultaneously, a Descending Triangle and a Double Bottom within the Triangle. We shall down play RSI and Stochastic as they are most effective inside Trading Channel. Therefore, we would use the Trend-following Indicators like Moving Averages, MACD and ADX to picture our projection.
Typically, the Descending Triangle is a bearish pattern because the Upper Trend closed with a Lower High. This means buyers are less anxious than the sellers, refusing to raise their bids.
The Breakout of the Triangle occurred on the 29th instant, with heavy Volume. Of course this we know. Thing is, will it holds? So let’s use our selected indicators to test! MA, all cleared, i.e. 8, 13, and 50 EMA... Next, the MACD signals (Chart 3) were also high on the Bullish territory, +ve crossed. Further, ADX (5D) halted its descend and curled up to the strongest trend at 30; screaming for a Buy Signal. I can go along with it, even though I’m aware that the norm ADX is 14 days. Chart 1 shows the bullish 3 White Soldiers marching smartly north! Also,a peek at the ATR is showing a declining trend. To me this means there shall be no problem seeing the Retracement of 50% to 0.75, my envisaged Resistance level.This also approximately coincided with depth of the last Bottom's trough reversed upward, thereby emphasing its significance. Using the base of the Double Bottom as a guide the Support level reads as 0.64. If China Stock is still hot in 2006, this provides window of opportunity, isn’t it?

Blunders will hurt returns much more than brilliant moves!

2005-12-31T19:01:00.000+08:00

This advice can save or make – us a lot of money. It’s simple: Just don’t make mistakes. Our investing success will be determined by the mistakes we make: by the number and the magnitude of our losses. Invest for long term, take what the market gives, don’t overreact when it goes down, and don’t mortgage your house when it goes up. Minimize expenses. Don’t take unnecessary risks. Have an investment plan, and stay with it.
Pretty basic stuff, to be sure. But how many of us consistently stick to these basics? (Abstract from Individual Investor)

STI - DEC 30 2005

2005-12-31T17:59:00.000+08:00

The "Crystal Ball" of MMI (M29)

2005-12-31T01:01:00.000+08:00

StatSChPac (S24) Updated as Requested

2005-12-30T19:25:00.000+08:00

StatchipPac (S24) does not look well. Stochastic shown overbought, Williams’ R % and RSI curled down already. Also a bearish divergence MACD signal against the Price. Rubbing sour into the wound is the fearful look like “Head and Shoulders” set to complete its task.
The Dormant Black Candle today shall deter new buyers! Until the dust is settled, it may not be prudent to enter trade as today’s high volume on dip is surely dangerous!

Shipping Surcharge Increased

2005-12-30T08:45:00.000+08:00

STI - Dec 29 2005

2005-12-29T23:55:00.000+08:00

STI closed above the 2340 level yesterday that should signal a move to
2369~2377 with immediate support at 2338~2340. Investors will be looking
forward to Singapore’s 4Q GDP estimates scheduled for release on January 3rd
2006. Consensus poll points to a 6.7% yoy rise driven by strong manufacturing
performance. This should underpin stocks in the current session and provide a
firm tone. (Kelive Report – 30 Dec 2005)

Cosco (C21) Updated

2005-12-29T23:44:00.000+08:00

Cosco today breached the $2.20, my last posting resistance level (based on high probability calculation) to enter trade!. Of course it pulled back to $2.17 at closing. The fact of the matter is that the so called Red Chip, the China Stock is now in full swing favour and coupled with today’s Breakout at High Volume, I can’t find a better opportunity than this!. Is it Cosco Cola time to you ?